BaseCase is launching via SEED to bring higher-quality signal to crypto-native forecasting through improved liquidity design.
Prediction markets are moving rapidly from the edges of crypto into the mainstream. Platforms like MetaMask, Binance, and even CNN are now experimenting with ways to turn collective belief into price, validating a long-held thesis that forecasting has real economic value. But this surge in interest has come with a hidden cost. Each new entrant is rebuilding the same market creation, liquidity, and settlement infrastructure in isolation, fragmenting liquidity and slowing meaningful progress. BaseCase takes a different approach. Instead of competing at the surface level, it acts as neutral infrastructure, using its proprietary shadow liquidity to feed markets into existing platforms and share in the value created as prediction markets begin to scale. When designed well, they aggregate dispersed information, align incentives, and surface conviction in a way that opinions, polls, or debates cannot.
Yet despite this promise, most prediction markets fail to deliver reliable signal in practice.
This failure is often misunderstood. It is not primarily caused by bad actors, low participation, or a lack of interest. More often, it is the result of weak market design. When the structure of a market does not support the efficient expression of conviction, even well-informed participants are unable to contribute meaningful signal.
This is why SEED is launching BaseCase.
BaseCase is a crypto-native prediction marketplace designed specifically for forecasting protocol outcomes, onchain events, and market signals. It is built for participants who care about information quality and decision-making, not noise or surface-level speculation.
At its core, BaseCase is a response to a structural problem that has limited prediction markets for years.
The Market Design Problem
Most prediction markets fragment liquidity across isolated outcomes. Each market operates largely on its own, requiring participants to commit capital separately even when the underlying information is closely related. Over time, this fragmentation weakens price discovery.
When liquidity is thin, prices move easily. When prices move easily, they stop representing collective conviction. Instead of surfacing signal, the market begins to amplify randomness.
This dynamic is especially visible in crypto-native contexts. Protocol upgrades, governance decisions, and onchain events are complex, interdependent, and time-sensitive. Traditional social consensus performs poorly in these environments, but many prediction markets struggle as well because their designs fail to concentrate information where it matters.
The result is a paradox. Prediction markets are theoretically powerful, yet practically unreliable.
Why Liquidity Design Matters
Liquidity is not just a scaling concern. It is the foundation of information quality.
A well-designed market allows participants with strong views to express them clearly, without being diluted by structural constraints. A poorly designed market forces capital into inefficient allocations, weakening the signal regardless of participant intent.
For prediction markets to work as intended, liquidity must be treated as a shared resource rather than a series of isolated pools.
This insight sits at the core of BaseCase’s design.
BaseCase and Shadow Liquidity
BaseCase introduces a different approach to liquidity through a mechanism known as shadow liquidity.
Rather than forcing capital to be explicitly deposited into every individual outcome, shadow liquidity allows related markets to benefit from shared liquidity across the system. In practical terms, this means conviction expressed in one part of the market can reinforce signal elsewhere, without requiring inefficient capital duplication.
The effect is subtle but powerful. Prices become tighter and more stable. Markets remain informative even at lower participation levels. Most importantly, forecasts begin to reflect informed conviction rather than incidental activity.
Shadow liquidity is not a feature designed to increase volume or excitement. It is a design choice aimed at improving information quality.
Prediction Markets as Information Infrastructure
BaseCase approaches prediction markets as information infrastructure rather than speculative products.
The goal is not to encourage constant participation or to maximise engagement metrics. The goal is to create conditions where being right matters more than being loud, and where prices can be interpreted as meaningful signals rather than entertainment.
In this framing, prediction markets complement research, analytics, and discussion. They do not replace them. Instead, they provide a mechanism for pricing uncertainty in environments where incentives and information are unevenly distributed.
This perspective is particularly important in crypto, where decisions are often made under uncertainty and traditional signals are unreliable.
Why SEED Is Launching BaseCase
SEED exists to support projects that prioritise fundamentals over hype and design over attention.
We are launching BaseCase because we believe that high-quality market design is essential for the next phase of onchain decision-making. As crypto matures, tools that surface reliable signal will become increasingly valuable, while those optimised purely for engagement will fade.
BaseCase represents a serious attempt to address the structural weaknesses that have limited prediction markets to date. Its focus on liquidity design and information quality aligns closely with SEED’s thesis around sustainable, long-term infrastructure.
Over the coming days, we will explore BaseCase in more detail, including how shadow liquidity works in practice, how to participate, and what to expect as the project approaches TGE.
Clarity comes first. Everything else follows.
SEED Team
Learn more
- BaseCase website: https://www.basecase.gg
- BaseCase docs: https://docs.basecase.gg
- Follow BaseCase on X: https://x.com/BaseCases
- Follow SEED on X: https://x.com/launchwithseed
- Join the SEED Telegram: https://t.me/launchwithseedchat
